Job Growth

Jobs in the US grew by 308,000 in March. There has been a lot of crowing about the prospect that continued strong job growth will have on the Kerry campaign. Don't Count On it! One of the major external factors in the growth of the American economy is the price of oil. G.W.B. is highly unpopular with the nations which set that price. While the O.P.E.C nations and their kleptocratic elites simply have too much to lose by an American economic downturn, they are well positioned to sit out a slow growth economy that is seen to advantage John Kerry.

"This is not in the best interest of Kuwait. Economic instability could threaten the international financial world markets where Kuwait is heavily invested," the minister was quoted as saying. link

An earlier decision by OPEC to cut production by 1,000,000 barrels per day was made in the face of signs of US economic growth. While Saudi, Venezuela and Iran do not control OPEC, neither do Kuwait, OAE, and Bahrain. Expect any improving signs in the American economic outlook to be matched by crude oil price increases or at least cuts in production.

Punditry is cheap. So here is my prediction, baring signs of an economic stall, we will continue to see prices above $30 a barrel until after the election.

posted by Y.H.N.